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These findings suggest that unless China receives additional raw materials supplies, achieving a lithium supply-demand balance under scenarios of low supply and maximum battery capacity (low-S7, low-S8) is unattainable in the current trade network structure, even if import capabilities are expanded to the maximum.
In 2025, China’s highest demand (812 kt lithium carbonate equivalent [LCE]) surpasses the combined total of the USA and Europe by 136 kt. Even in the lowest scenario (275 kt), Chinese demand remains above Europe (124 kt) and the USA (99 kt). By 2030, China’s peak demand hits 1,319 kt, compared with 792 kt for Europe and 692 kt for the USA.
According to the supply scenarios (Figure 2), by 2025, China’s domestic lithium production varies from 525 to 585 kt of LCE in the low and high scenarios, respectively (Tables S3 and S4). Europe is projected to have a significantly smaller supply, ranging from 10 to 12 kt (Tables S5 and S6), reflecting its early stage of lithium mining development.
Europe is projected to have a significantly smaller supply, ranging from 10 to 12 kt (Tables S5 and S6), reflecting its early stage of lithium mining development. Meanwhile, the USA is expected to expand its capacity to 34 kt based on its sole active lithium mine (Tables S7 and S8).
Current international politics and the Inflation Reduction Act also increase the likelihood of Europe gaining access to redistributed lithium.65,66,67 Reallocating lithium resources would ensure efficient distribution to markets with real demand, stabilize prices, and improve economic outcomes.
Given the limited documentation on international lithium ore trade, which mainly occurs between Australia and China, 55,57 this paper focuses on intermediate processed products like lithium carbonate, hydroxide, and oxide, which essentially covers the global lithium flows post-mining. 46,47