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				    So we''ve talk to anyone in the battery world over the last few months and I guarantee you at some point in the conversation you''re going to end up marveling together at just how cheap lithium-ion battery cells and packs
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And again, crazy numbers coming out of China in terms of stationary energy storage, costs, not just at the cell level but at the system level. At a system level for turnkey system, you’re looking at something like $135 per kilowatt-hour. So again, crazy low considering that 18 months ago the average price of a cell was about $135 per kilowatt-hour.
BloombergNEF put out a stat that I’ve heard cited like many times since then, a couple months ago that LFP battery cells in China on the spot market were selling for $53 a kilowatt-hour. Just truly bananas cheap relative to what you would’ve expected even just a couple of years ago.
And I plugged some numbers earlier into the model from BloombergNEF and looking the difference between the US and China. So for a LFP cell produced in China, 35 gigawatt hour facility, you’re looking at around $68 per kilowatt-hour.
The market is cyclical and you’d have periods of oversupply and prices would crash as we are seeing now, in battery world. And one of the things that would happen in that crash is that you would see a shakeout in China. A bunch of companies would disappear and fail. But the bigger ones at least could withstand zero to negative margins for a while.
And so on the other side of that, there would still be a few really, really large Chinese PV manufacturers who just had the capacity and the capital and the support to withstand a temporary crash in prices and removal of margin effectively. But Western manufacturers really struggled with that and just didn’t have the capacity to weather the storm.
But the bigger ones at least could withstand zero to negative margins for a while. And so on the other side of that, there would still be a few really, really large Chinese PV manufacturers who just had the capacity and the capital and the support to withstand a temporary crash in prices and removal of margin effectively.